Contributions of regional air pollutant emissions to ozone and fine particulate matter-related mortalities in eastern U.S. urban areas

Abstract

Ground-level ozone and fine particulate matter (PM2.5) are associated with adverse human health effects such as lung structure dysfunction, inflammation and infection, asthma, and premature deaths. This study estimated contributions of emissions of anthropogenic nitrogen oxides (NOx), volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and sulfur dioxides (SO2) from four regions to summertime (i.e., June, July, and August) ozone and PM2.5-related mortalities in seven major Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs with more than 4 million people) in the eastern United States (U.S.). A photochemical transport model, Community Multi-scale Air Quality (CMAQ) with sensitivity analyses, was applied to quantify the contribution of the regional anthropogenic emissions to ambient ozone and PM2.5 concentrations in the seven MSAs. The results of the sensitivity analysis, along with estimates of concentration-response from published epidemiologic studies, were used to estimate excess deaths associated with changes in ambient daily 8-h average ozone and daily PM2.5 concentrations during the summer of 2007. The results show that secondary PM2.5 (i.e., PM2.5 formed in the atmosphere) had larger effects on mortality (95% confidence interval (C.I.) ranged from 700 to 3854) than ambient ozone did (95% C.I. was 470-1353) in the seven MSAs. Emissions of anthropogenic NOx, VOCs and SO2 from the northeastern U.S. could cause up to about 2500 ozone and PM2.5-related deaths in the urban areas examined in this study. The results also show that the contributions of emissions from electrical generating units (EGUs) and anthropogenic non-EGU sources to ozone-related mortality in the MSAs were similar. However, emissions from EGUs had a more significant impact on PM2.5-related deaths than anthropogenic emissions from non-EGUs sources did. Anthropogenic NOx and VOCs emissions from the regions where the MSAs are located had the most significant contributions to ozone-related mortalities in the eastern U.S. urban areas. On the other hand, PM2.5-related mortalities in the MSAs were more likely to be affected by precursors transported from other regions.

Keywords: Eastern United States; Electrical generating units; Mortality; Ozone; PM(2.5).