A prognostic index to predict survival after liver transplantation could address several clinical needs. Here, we devised a scoring system that predicts recipient survival after pediatric liver transplantation. We used univariate and multivariate analysis on 4565 pediatric liver transplant recipients data and identified independent recipient and donor risk factors for posttransplant mortality at 3 months. Multiple imputation was used to account for missing variables. We identified five factors as significant predictors of recipient mortality after pediatric liver transplantation: two previous transplants (OR 5.88, CI 2.88-12.01), one previous transplant (OR 2.54, CI 1.75-3.68), life support (OR 3.68, CI 2.39-5.67), renal insufficiency (OR 2.66, CI 1.84-3.84), recipient weight under 6 kilograms (OR 1.67, CI 1.12-2.36) and cadaveric technical variant allograft (OR 1.38, CI 1.03-1.83). The Survival Outcomes Following Pediatric Liver Transplant score assigns weighted risk points to each of these factors in a scoring system to predict 3-month recipient survival after liver transplantation with a C-statistic of 0.74. Although quite accurate when compared with other posttransplant survival models, we would not advocate individual clinical application of the index.
Keywords: Clinical decision-making; United Network for Organ Sharing (UNOS); patient survival.
© Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.