In social networks, nodes (or users) interested in specific topics are often influenced by others. The influence is usually associated with a set of nodes rather than a single one. An interesting but challenging task for any given topic and node is to find the set of nodes that represents the source or trigger for the topic and thus identify those nodes that have the greatest influence on the given node as the topic spreads. We find that it is an NP-hard problem. This paper proposes an effective framework to deal with this problem. First, the topic propagation is represented as the Bayesian network. We then construct the propagation model by a variant of the voter model. The probability transition matrix (PTM) algorithm is presented to conduct the probability inference with the complexity O(θ(3)log2θ), while θ is the number nodes in the given graph. To evaluate the PTM algorithm, we conduct extensive experiments on real datasets. The experimental results show that the PTM algorithm is both effective and efficient.