Retinopathy of prematurity risk prediction for infants with birth weight less than 1251 grams

Abstract

Objective: To predict retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) exam findings among infants with birth weight <1251 g from 32-40 weeks postmenstrual age (PMA).

Study design: Secondary analysis of 3714 eye exams from 1239 infants.

Results: The likelihood of developing type 1 ROP by 40 weeks PMA varied by gestational age (GA) (P < .001), from 33% for ≤25 weeks, 10% for 26 or 27 weeks, 4% for 28 or 29 weeks, and none for ≥30 weeks. By 40 weeks PMA, 51% with GA ≤27 weeks still needed subsequent exams. Previous exam findings, GA, and PMA were predictive of the development of type 1 ROP (area under the curve, 0.78) or mature retina (area under the curve, 0.85).

Conclusions: This analysis provides the opportunity for development of an ROP approach to estimate resource needs in the neonatal intensive care unit and to facilitate communication with families when planning discharge or transfer.

Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT01264276.