Host-guest inclusion complexes are useful models for understanding the structural and energetic aspects of molecular recognition. Due to their small size relative to much larger protein-ligand complexes, converged results can be obtained rapidly for these systems thus offering the opportunity to more reliably study fundamental aspects of the thermodynamics of binding. In this work, we have performed a large scale binding affinity survey of 57 β-cyclodextrin (CD) host guest systems using the binding energy distribution analysis method (BEDAM) with implicit solvation (OPLS-AA/AGBNP2). Converged estimates of the standard binding free energies are obtained for these systems by employing techniques such as parallel Hamitionian replica exchange molecular dynamics, conformational reservoirs and multistate free energy estimators. Good agreement with experimental measurements is obtained in terms of both numerical accuracy and affinity rankings. Overall, average effective binding energies reproduce affinity rank ordering better than the calculated binding affinities, even though calculated binding free energies, which account for effects such as conformational strain and entropy loss upon binding, provide lower root mean square errors when compared to measurements. Interestingly, we find that binding free energies are superior rank order predictors for a large subset containing the most flexible guests. The results indicate that, while challenging, accurate modeling of reorganization effects can lead to ligand design models of superior predictive power for rank ordering relative to models based only on ligand-receptor interaction energies.
Keywords: Binding free energy; cyclodextrin; entropy; reorganization; replica exchange.