Single non-invasive model to diagnose non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) and non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH)

Abstract

Background and aim: Non-alcoholic steatohepatitis (NASH) is the progressive form of non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD). A liver biopsy is considered the "gold standard" for diagnosing/staging NASH. Identification of NAFLD/NASH using non-invasive tools is important for intervention. The study aims were to: develop/validate the predictive performance of a non-invasive model (index of NASH [ION]); assess the performance of a recognized non-invasive model (fatty liver index [FLI]) compared with ION for NAFLD diagnosis; determine which non-invasive model (FLI, ION, or NAFLD fibrosis score [NFS]) performed best in predicting age-adjusted mortality.

Methods: From the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey III database, anthropometric, clinical, ultrasound, laboratory, and mortality data were obtained (n = 4458; n = 861 [19.3%] NAFLD by ultrasound) and used to develop the ION model, and then to compare the ION and FLI models for NAFLD diagnosis. For validation and diagnosis of NASH, liver biopsy data were used (n = 152). Age-adjusted Cox proportional hazard modeling estimated the association among the three non-invasive tests (FLI, ION, and NFS) and mortality.

Results: FLI's threshold score > 60 and ION's threshold score > 22 had similar specificity (FLI = 80% vs ION = 82%) for NAFLD diagnosis; FLI < 30 (80% sensitivity) and ION < 11 (81% sensitivity) excluded NAFLD. An ION score > 50 predicted histological NASH (92% specificity); the FLI model did not predict NASH or mortality. The ION model was best in predicting cardiovascular/diabetes-related mortality; NFS predicted overall or diabetes-related mortality.

Conclusions: The ION model was superior in predicting NASH and mortality compared with the FLI model. Studies are needed to validate ION.

Keywords: clinical; epidemiology; fatty liver disease; identification; model; non invasive.