Application of screening tools to detect risk of hospital readmission in elderly patients in Valencian Healthcare System (VHS) (Spain)

Abstract

The Sustainable Social and Healthcare Model (SSHM) is aimed to establish new care pathways in primary care systems contributing to the decrease of health services use and costs and improve the integration and efficiency of social and health care for elderly people with long-term care (LTC) needs. One of these strategies is the segmentation of population in risk groups through standardized tools. This paper is a retrospective study aimed to determine the viability of the implementation of the screening tools Probability of Repeated Admission - Pra - and The Community Assessment Risk Screen - CARS - to detect patients at risk of hospital readmission in a sample of 500 elderly people (65+) from the VHS in Spain. Patients were recruited from three Health Departments. Data from selected tools and predictive variables were collected through the healthcare database from the VHS. The most important results indicate that both instruments predict with high efficacy the proportion of patients not readmitted (negative predictive value between 91% and 92%). Moreover, the tools performed with a moderate efficiency being the Pra less sensitive (54%) and more specific (81%) than CARS (with a sensitivity and specificity of 64%). Results from this study suggest that the application of instruments as Pra and CARS are of interest to the Valencian Health Administration as they can be a good strategy to improve the management of elderly patients at risk with comorbidities and guiding clinical decision.

Keywords: Chronic risk; Elderly; Hospital readmissions; Management of chronic diseases; Screening tools.