Two chaotic global models for cereal crops cycles observed from satellite in northern Morocco

Chaos. 2014 Jun;24(2):023130. doi: 10.1063/1.4882376.

Abstract

The dynamics underlying cereal crops in the northern region of Morocco is investigated using a global modelling technique applied to a vegetation index time series derived from satellite measurements, namely, the normalized difference vegetation index from 1982 to 2008. Two three-dimensional chaotic global models of reduced size (14-term and 15-term models) are obtained. The model validation is performed by comparing their horizons of predictability with those provided in previous studies. The attractors produced by the two global models have a complex foliated structure-evidenced in a Poincaré section-rending a topological characterization difficult to perform. Thus, the Kaplan-Yorke dimension is estimated from the synthetic data produced by our global models. Our results suggest that cereal crops in the northern Morocco are governed by a weakly dissipative three-dimensional chaotic dynamics.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Crops, Agricultural / growth & development*
  • Edible Grain / growth & development*
  • Models, Theoretical*
  • Morocco
  • Nonlinear Dynamics*
  • Satellite Communications*
  • Time Factors