Can we predict the high-risk patient?

Abstract

Background: While therapeutic strategies able to change the natural history of inflammatory bowel diseases (IBD) are being developed, factors predicting aggressive disease are needed to be able to choose the appropriate therapeutic strategy for the individual patient based on the risk/benefit ratio. The aim of this review is to focus on the tools assisting the clinician in routine practice regarding the prediction of disease evolution.

Methods: A literature review was performed, which was mainly based on PubMed search, using the following terms: Crohn's disease, ulcerative colitis, inflammatory bowel disease, genetics, serology, biomarkers, endoscopy, C-reactive protein, faecal calprotectin, disease evolution and complications.

Results: For the prediction of disease evolution, clinical characteristics, particularly disease location and behaviour, are probably currently the most useful. In addition, a series of biomarkers, including genetic, serological and inflammatory markers, as well as characteristics of endoscopic lesions may have an added value.

Conclusions: Simple clinical, biological and endoscopic tools may help the clinician in predicting disease evolution in IBD. However, these tools are still insufficient, and prospective evaluation of new genetic and biological markers are needed.