Purpose: To construct and validate among patients with multiple myeloma (MM) who were treated with intensive therapy a prognostic index of early MM progression-related death.
Patients and methods: Patient-level data from the Intergroupe Francophone du Myélome (IFM) 2005-01 trial (N = 482) were used to construct the prognostic index. The event was MM progression-related death within 2 years from treatment initiation. The index was validated using data from three other trials: the Gruppo Italiano Malattie Ematologiche dell' Adulto (GIMEMA) 26866138-MMY-3006 trial (N = 480), the Programa para el Estudio de la Terapéutica en Hemopatía Maligna (PETHEMA)-GEMMENOS65 trial (N = 390), and the Hemato-Oncologie voor Volwassenen Nederland (HOVON) -65/German-Speaking Myeloma Multicenter Group (GMMG) -HD4 trial (N = 827).
Results: The risk of early MM progression-related death was related to three independent prognostic variables: lactate dehydrogenase (LDH) higher than than normal, International Staging System 3 (ISS3), and adverse cytogenetics [t(4;14) and/or del(17p)]. These three variables enabled the definition of an ordinal prognostic classification composed of four scores (0 to 3). Patients with a score of 3, defined by the presence of t(4;14) and/or del(17p) in addition to ISS3 and/or high LDH, comprised 5% (20 of 387 patients) to 8% (94 of 1,139 patients) of the patients in the learning and validation samples, respectively, and they had a very poor prognosis. When applied to the population of 855 patients who had received bortezomib-based induction therapy in the four trials, the prognostic classification was also able to segregate patients into four categories, with a very poor prognosis attributed to patients with a score of 3.
Conclusion: Our model allows the simple definition of a subgroup of MM patients at high risk of early MM progression-related death despite the use of the most modern and effective strategies.
© 2014 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.