A prognostic model of therapy-related myelodysplastic syndrome for predicting survival and transformation to acute myeloid leukemia

Clin Lymphoma Myeloma Leuk. 2014 Oct;14(5):401-10. doi: 10.1016/j.clml.2014.03.001. Epub 2014 May 6.

Abstract

Introduction/background: We evaluated the characteristics of a cohort of patients with myelodysplastic syndrome (MDS) related to therapy (t-MDS) to create a prognostic model.

Patients and methods: We identified 281 patients with MDS who had received previous chemotherapy and/or radiotherapy for previous malignancy. Potential prognostic factors were determined using univariate and multivariate analyses.

Results: Multivariate Cox regression analysis identified 7 factors that independently predicted short survival in t-MDS: age ≥ 65 years (hazard ratio [HR], 1.63), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status 2-4 (HR, 1.86), poor cytogenetics (-7 and/or complex; HR, 2.47), World Health Organization MDS subtype (RARs or RAEB-1/2; HR, 1.92), hemoglobin (< 11 g/dL; HR, 2.24), platelets (< 50 × 10(9)/dL; HR, 2.01), and transfusion dependency (HR, 1.59). These risk factors were used to create a prognostic model that segregated patients into 3 groups with distinct median overall survival: good (0-2 risk factors; 34 months), intermediate (3-4 risk factors; 12 months), and poor (5-7 risk factors; 5 months) (P < .001) and 1-year leukemia-free survival (96%, 84%, and 72%, respectively, P = .003). This model also identified distinct survival groups according to t-MDS therapy.

Conclusion: In summary, we devised a prognostic model specifically for patients with t-MDS that predicted overall survival and leukemia-free survival. This model might facilitate the development of risk-adapted therapeutic strategies.

Keywords: Prognostic model; Secondary; Survival; Therapy-related MDS; Transformation.

Publication types

  • Research Support, N.I.H., Extramural
  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Antineoplastic Agents / adverse effects*
  • Antineoplastic Agents / therapeutic use
  • Blood Transfusion / statistics & numerical data
  • Disease Progression
  • Disease-Free Survival
  • Female
  • Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation / adverse effects
  • Hemoglobins / analysis
  • Humans
  • Kaplan-Meier Estimate
  • Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / etiology*
  • Leukemia, Myeloid, Acute / genetics
  • Leukemia, Radiation-Induced / etiology*
  • Leukemia, Radiation-Induced / mortality
  • Leukemia, Radiation-Induced / pathology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Models, Biological*
  • Multivariate Analysis
  • Myelodysplastic Syndromes / chemically induced
  • Myelodysplastic Syndromes / etiology*
  • Myelodysplastic Syndromes / mortality
  • Myelodysplastic Syndromes / pathology
  • Neoplasms, Second Primary / chemically induced
  • Neoplasms, Second Primary / etiology*
  • Neoplasms, Second Primary / mortality
  • Platelet Count
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Radiotherapy / adverse effects*
  • Risk Factors
  • Young Adult

Substances

  • Antineoplastic Agents
  • Hemoglobins