Escaping to the summits: phylogeography and predicted range dynamics of Cerastium dinaricum, an endangered high mountain plant endemic to the western Balkan Peninsula

Abstract

The Balkans are a major European biodiversity hotspot, however, almost nothing is known about processes of intraspecific diversification of the region's high-altitude biota and their reaction to the predicted global warming. To fill this gap, genome size measurements, AFLP fingerprints, plastid and nuclear sequences were employed to explore the phylogeography of Cerastium dinaricum. Range size changes under future climatic conditions were predicted by niche-based modeling. Likely the most cold-adapted plant endemic to the Dinaric Mountains in the western Balkan Peninsula, the species has conservation priority in the European Union as its highly fragmented distribution range includes only few small populations. A deep phylogeographic split paralleled by divergent genome size separates the populations into two vicariant groups. Substructure is pronounced within the southeastern group, corresponding to the area's higher geographic complexity. Cerastium dinaricum likely responded to past climatic oscillations with altitudinal range shifts, which, coupled with high topographic complexity of the region and warmer climate in the Holocene, sculptured its present fragmented distribution. Field observations revealed that the species is rarer than previously assumed and, as shown by modeling, severely endangered by global warming as viable habitat was predicted to be reduced by more than 70% by the year 2080.

Keywords: Balkan Peninsula; Dinaric Mountains; Global warming; Habitat modeling; Phylogeny; Rare endemic plant.