A random matrix approach to credit risk

PLoS One. 2014 May 22;9(5):e98030. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0098030. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

We estimate generic statistical properties of a structural credit risk model by considering an ensemble of correlation matrices. This ensemble is set up by Random Matrix Theory. We demonstrate analytically that the presence of correlations severely limits the effect of diversification in a credit portfolio if the correlations are not identically zero. The existence of correlations alters the tails of the loss distribution considerably, even if their average is zero. Under the assumption of randomly fluctuating correlations, a lower bound for the estimation of the loss distribution is provided.

MeSH terms

  • Financing, Personal*
  • Models, Economic*
  • Risk

Grants and funding

The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. MCM acknowledges Financial support from Studienstiftung des deutschen Volkes.