Objective: In patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis, we analyzed whether laboratory and clinical findings determined in the early phase of disease and morphologic features on contrast-enhanced CT (CECT) at the beginning of the late phase of disease are helpful in predicting patient outcome and whether CECT findings provide additional information in establishing prognosis compared with the laboratory and clinical findings.
Materials and methods: A retrospective analysis of 99 patients with acute necrotizing pancreatitis was performed. Four laboratory variables (albumin, calcium, C-reactive protein, WBC count) and three clinical variables (Acute Physiology, Age, Chronic Health Evaluation [APACHE] II score; Simplified Acute Physiology Score [SAPS] II; persistent organ failure) were assessed. Five morphologic features on CECT including Balthazar grade and CT severity index were reviewed. The endpoints of patient outcome were peripancreatic or pancreatic infection, need for intervention, duration of organ failure, ICU and hospital stays, and death. Based on receiver operating characteristic curve analysis for infection, high-and low-risk groups for each prognostic variable were calculated and univariable and multivariable Cox regression analyses were carried out.
Results: In our study population of 99 patients (63 men, 36 women; median age, 52 years; age range, 18-84 years), 25 patients (25%) developed infection, 42 patients (42%) experienced organ failure, and 12 patients (12%) died. Regarding the laboratory and clinical variables, albumin level, APACHE II score, and particularly persistent organ failure were the strongest independent predictors of patient outcome. Regarding the imaging variables, Balthazar grade and a morphologic feature that takes the distribution of intrapancreatic necrosis into account were the strongest independent predictors. In the multivariable analysis of all studied variables, imaging variables were independent and strong predictors of patient outcome and provided additional information in establishing prognosis compared with clinical and laboratory findings.
Conclusion: In patients with suspected or proven acute necrotizing pancreatitis, performing CECT at the beginning of the late phase of disease is recommended to identify patients at increased risk for adverse outcomes.