Sex ratio bias and extinction risk in an isolated population of Tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus)

PLoS One. 2014 Apr 8;9(4):e94214. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0094214. eCollection 2014.

Abstract

Understanding the mechanisms underlying population declines is critical for preventing the extinction of endangered populations. Positive feedbacks can hasten the process of collapse and create an 'extinction vortex,' particularly in small, isolated populations. We provide a case study of a male-biased sex ratio creating the conditions for extinction in a natural population of tuatara (Sphenodon punctatus) on North Brother Island in the Cook Strait of New Zealand. We combine data from long term mark-recapture surveys, updated model estimates of hatchling sex ratio, and population viability modeling to measure the impacts of sex ratio skew. Results from the mark-recapture surveys show an increasing decline in the percentage of females in the adult tuatara population. Our monitoring reveals compounding impacts on female fitness through reductions in female body condition, fecundity, and survival as the male-bias in the population has increased. Additionally, we find that current nest temperatures are likely to result in more male than female hatchlings, owing to the pattern of temperature-dependent sex determination in tuatara where males hatch at warmer temperatures. Anthropogenic climate change worsens the situation for this isolated population, as projected temperature increases for New Zealand are expected to further skew the hatchling sex ratio towards males. Population viability models predict that without management intervention or an evolutionary response, the population will ultimately become entirely comprised of males and functionally extinct. Our study demonstrates that sex ratio bias can be an underappreciated threat to population viability, particularly in populations of long-lived organisms that appear numerically stable.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Extinction, Biological*
  • Female
  • Islands
  • Lizards*
  • Male
  • Models, Theoretical
  • New Zealand
  • Population Dynamics
  • Reproductive Isolation*
  • Risk
  • Sex Ratio*

Grants and funding

This work was supported by the Allan Wilson Centre for Molecular Ecology and Evolution and the School of Biological Sciences at Victoria University of Wellington. Funding was also provided by grants from the US National Science Foundation (International Research Fellowship OISE-0965096 to KLG), Dallas Zoo, (http://www.dallaszoo.com/), Toledo Zoo (http://www.toledozoo.org/), and St. Louis Zoo (http://www.stlzoo.org/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.