Extensive changes in montane forest structure have occurred throughout the U.S. Southwest following Euro-American settlement. These changes are a product of confounding effects of disturbance, climate variability, species competition, and modern land use changes. Pronounced forest reproduction events in the Southwest have generally occurred in climatically wet periods but have also followed widespread fire exclusion. Understanding the ecological processes driving such events has important implications for forest restoration, although these efforts remain difficult due to confounding factors. Separation of these interacting factors was possible in the Sierra San Luis of northern Mexico where we investigated climate, fire, and tree recruitment in areas with continued frequent fires or where fire exclusion came relatively late (1940s). Fires were strongly tied to interannual wet-dry cycles of climate, whereas recruitment peaks were more closely tied to local processes, namely, fire-free periods, than to broad-scale climatically wet conditions. The greatest pulse of tree recruitment coincided with a pronounced mid-century drought (1942-1957) and a period of reduced fire frequency. The second largest pulse of recruitment (ca. 1900) preceded a well-documented period of recruitment (and an anomalously wet period) elsewhere across the Southwest in the 1910s-1920s, and also coincided with specific fire-free periods during below-average precipitation. We also found greater spatial dependence and clustering in older age classes of trees. This spatial pattern indicates a legacy of fire-induced mortality in shaping stand structure, underscoring the importance of frequent fire effects on spatial variability in forests.