Mortality associated with seasonal and pandemic influenza and respiratory syncytial virus among children <5 years of age in a high HIV prevalence setting--South Africa, 1998-2009

Clin Infect Dis. 2014 May;58(9):1241-9. doi: 10.1093/cid/ciu095. Epub 2014 Feb 23.

Abstract

Background: There are few published data describing the mortality burden associated with influenza and respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) infection in children in low- and middle-income countries and particularly from Africa and settings with high prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV).

Methods: We modeled the excess mortality attributable to influenza (seasonal and pandemic) and RSV infection by applying Poisson regression models to monthly all-respiratory and pneumonia and influenza deaths, using national influenza and RSV laboratory surveillance data as covariates. In addition, we estimated the seasonal influenza- and RSV-associated deaths among HIV-infected and -uninfected children using Poisson regression models that incorporated HIV prevalence and highly active antiretroviral therapy coverage as covariates.

Results: In children <5 years of age, the mean annual numbers of seasonal influenza- and RSV-associated all-respiratory deaths were 452 (8 per 100 000 person-years [PY]) and 546 (10 per 100 000 PY), respectively. Infants <1 year of age experienced higher mortality rates compared with children 1-4 years of age for both influenza (22 vs 5 per 100 000 PY) and RSV (35 vs 4 per 100 000 PY). HIV-infected compared with HIV-uninfected children <5 years of age were at increased risk of death associated with influenza (age-adjusted relative risk [aRR], 11.5; 95% confidence interval [CI], 9.6-12.6) and RSV (aRR, 8.1; 95% CI, 6.9-9.3) infection. In 2009, we estimated 549 (11 per 100 000 PY) all-respiratory influenza A(H1N1)pdm09-associated deaths among children aged <5 years.

Conclusions: Our findings support increased research efforts to guide and prioritize interventions such as influenza vaccination and HIV prevention in low- and middle-income countries with high HIV prevalence such as South Africa.

Keywords: HIV; South Africa; influenza; mortality; respiratory syncytial virus.

MeSH terms

  • Child Mortality
  • Child, Preschool
  • Epidemiological Monitoring
  • Female
  • HIV Infections / complications
  • HIV Infections / epidemiology
  • Humans
  • Infant
  • Infant, Newborn
  • Influenza A Virus, H1N1 Subtype
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / mortality*
  • Male
  • Pandemics*
  • Pneumonia / complications
  • Pneumonia / epidemiology
  • Pneumonia / mortality*
  • Poisson Distribution
  • Prevalence
  • Regression Analysis
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / epidemiology
  • Respiratory Syncytial Virus Infections / mortality*
  • Respiratory Syncytial Viruses
  • Risk Assessment
  • Seasons
  • South Africa / epidemiology