Borrelia burgdorferi s.s., the bacterium that causes Lyme disease in North America, circulates among a suite of vertebrate hosts and their tick vector. The bacterium can be differentiated at the outer surface protein C (ospC) locus into 25 genotypes. Wildlife hosts can be infected with a suite of ospC types but knowledge on the transmission efficiencies of these naturally infected hosts to ticks is still lacking. To evaluate the occupancy and detection of ospC types in wildlife hosts, we adapted a likelihood-based species patch occupancy model to test for the occurrence probabilities (ψ - "occupancy") and transmission efficiencies (ε - "detection") of each ospC type. We detected differences in ospC occurrence and transmission efficiencies from the null models with HIS (human invasive strains) types A and K having the highest occurrence estimates, but both HIS and non-HIS types having high transmission efficiencies. We also examined ospC frequency patterns with respect to strains known to be invasive in humans across the host species and phylogenetic groups. We found that shrews and to a lesser extent, birds, were important host groups supporting relatively greater frequencies of HIS to non-HIS types. This novel method of simultaneously assessing occurrence and transmission of ospC types provides a powerful tool in assessing disease risk at the genotypic level in naturally infected wildlife hosts and offers the opportunity to examine disease risk at the community level.
Keywords: Likelihood model; Lyme disease; Occurrence probability; Species occupancy model; Transmission efficiency; ospC.
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