Background: In oncology, we tend to look for factors that reflect better prognosis or predict response to treatments in order to make a selection from which patients will derive the benefit, avoiding futile therapies and/or toxicities. Definitive prognostic and predictive factors in advanced biliary cancer remain unknown.
Methods: We retrospectively analyzed all consecutive patients in our institution with advanced biliary tract cancer treated with palliative cisplatin plus gemcitabine. We evaluated the prognostic and predictive role of the immunohistochemistry (IHC) expression of ERCC1 (excision cross-complementing gene-1) on tumor response and also examined several clinical and laboratory prognostic factors for overall survival.
Results: From January 2009 to July 2011, 72 patients were identified; their median overall survival was 9.5 months. Independent variables associated with shorter survival identified by the multivariable Cox regression analysis were ECOG 2-3 (HR 8.4; 95% CI 3.4 to 20.7; p < 0.001) and Charlson Comorbidity Index >1 (HR 9.5; 95% CI 1.6 to 55.3; p = 0.012). Pathology slides were available from 44 patients: 23 (52%) stained positive for ERCC1 on IHC (score ≥0.5). In this subgroup, expression of ERCC-1 was not prognostic and was not associated with either clinical benefit (partial response and stable disease) or tumor response (partial response only) to chemotherapy.
Conclusions: In this cohort of unselected patients with advanced biliary tract cancer treated with first-line gemcitabine plus cisplatin, IHC expression of ERCC1 was not either predictive or prognostic. Patients with ECOG 2-3 and/or multiple comorbidities had worse survival.