Inferring the relative resilience of alternative states

PLoS One. 2013 Oct 11;8(10):e77338. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0077338. eCollection 2013.

Abstract

Ecological systems may occur in alternative states that differ in ecological structures, functions and processes. Resilience is the measure of disturbance an ecological system can absorb before changing states. However, how the intrinsic structures and processes of systems that characterize their states affects their resilience remains unclear. We analyzed time series of phytoplankton communities at three sites in a floodplain in central Spain to assess the dominant frequencies or "temporal scales" in community dynamics and compared the patterns between a wet and a dry alternative state. The identified frequencies and cross-scale structures are expected to arise from positive feedbacks that are thought to reinforce processes in alternative states of ecological systems and regulate emergent phenomena such as resilience. Our analyses show a higher species richness and diversity but lower evenness in the dry state. Time series modeling revealed a decrease in the importance of short-term variability in the communities, suggesting that community dynamics slowed down in the dry relative to the wet state. The number of temporal scales at which community dynamics manifested, and the explanatory power of time series models, was lower in the dry state. The higher diversity, reduced number of temporal scales and the lower explanatory power of time series models suggest that species dynamics tended to be more stochastic in the dry state. From a resilience perspective our results highlight a paradox: increasing species richness may not necessarily enhance resilience. The loss of cross-scale structure (i.e. the lower number of temporal scales) in community dynamics across sites suggests that resilience erodes during drought. Phytoplankton communities in the dry state are therefore likely less resilient than in the wet state. Our case study demonstrates the potential of time series modeling to assess attributes that mediate resilience. The approach is useful for assessing resilience of alternative states across ecological and other complex systems.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Biodiversity*
  • Ecosystem*
  • Floods
  • Geography
  • Models, Theoretical
  • Phytoplankton*
  • Seasons
  • Spain

Grants and funding

The authors acknowledge financial support from the August T. Larsson Foundation of the Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences. This study was also funded by the projects CGL 2009 10292 (Spanish Ministry of Economy and Competitiveness) and 001/2008 (Spanish Ministry of Environment and National Parks Authority). The Nebraska Cooperative Fish and Wildlife Research Unit is jointly supported by a cooperative agreement between the U.S. Geological Survey, the Nebraska Game and Parks Commission, the University of Nebraska−Lincoln, the United States Fish and Wildlife Service, and the Wildlife Management Institute. Reference to trade names does not imply endorsement by the authors or the U.S. government. The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.