Model simulation of inflow water to the Baltic Sea based on ¹²⁹I

Abstract

The semi-enclosed Baltic Sea represents a vital economic and recreational resource for more than 90 million people inhabiting its coasts. Extensive contamination of this sea by a variety of anthropogenic pollutants has raised the concern of the people in the region. Quantifying seawater inflow is crucial for estimating potential environmental risks as well as to find the best remedial strategy. We present here a model to estimate water inflow from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea by utilizing ¹²⁹I as a tracer. The results predicted inflow range of 230-450 km³/y with best fit value around 330 km³/y from the North Sea to the Baltic Sea during 1980-1999. Despite limited time series data on ¹²⁹I, the model presented here demonstrates a new management tool for the Baltic Sea to calculate inflow water compared to conventional methods (such as salinity, temperature and hydrographic models).

Keywords: Baltic Sea; Flux; Iodine; Mathematical models; Radioisotopes; Water flow.