Objectives: We analyzed the costs and outcomes of lung transplant in Portugal and its evolution since it was first performed in 2000.
Methods: Data were collected for all patients waiting for transplant from 31 December 2000 until 31 December 2010 (n = 61). Patients waiting for transplant were used as the comparison group. We calculated the mean restricted survival time using the Kaplan-Meier estimation method. The time horizon was closed upon the death of the last surviving patient. Costs and consequences were discounted at 5% per annum. We calculated the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of transplant as compared to no transplant. Deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses were performed. We tested volume-outcome effects using a parametric survival regression.
Results: The cost of lung transplantation was 77,223€ per QALY and 121,276€ per life-year. Assuming a 50,000€/QALY willingness-to-pay, lung transplant would be cost-effective with a 37% probability. Survival improved substantially from 5.15 years over the 2001-2010 period to 6.94 years for the 2008-2010 period. When restricting our analysis to the 2008-2010 period, the cost-effectiveness ratio decreased to €79,016 per life-year gained and €69,241 per QALY. Survival was significantly associated with the number of procedures performed.
Conclusion: Although above commonly accepted cost-effectiveness thresholds, the economic value of lung transplant holds promise in Portugal due to the large improvement in survival over the 2001-2010 period. The life-threatening character of the motivating conditions, the absence of alternative treatment, and equity concerns should be also accounted for when assessing the "value for money" of lung transplant.