CT scan-based modelling of anastomotic leak risk after colorectal surgery

Colorectal Dis. 2013;15(10):1295-300. doi: 10.1111/codi.12305.

Abstract

Aim: Prolonged ileus, low-grade fever and abdominal discomfort are common during the first week after colonic resection. Undiagnosed anastomotic leak carries a poor outcome and computed tomography (CT) scan is the best imaging tool for assessing postoperative abdominal complications. We used a CT scan-based model to quantify the risk of anastomotic leak after colorectal surgery.

Method: A case-control analysis of 74 patients who underwent clinico-radiological evaluation after colorectal surgery for suspicion of anastomotic leak was undertaken and a multivariable analysis of risk factors for leak was performed. A logistic regression model was used to identify determinant variables and construct a predictive score.

Results: Out of 74 patients with a clinical suspicion of anastomotic leak, 17 (23%) had this complication confirmed following repeat laparotomy. In multivariate analysis, three variables were associated with anastomotic leak: (1) white blood cells count > 9 × 10(9) /l (OR = 14.8); (2) presence of ≥ 500 cm(3) of intra- abdominal fluid (OR = 13.4); and (3) pneumoperitoneum at the site of anastomosis (OR = 9.9). Each of these three parameters contributed one point to the risk score. The observed risk of leak was 0, 6, 31 and 100%, respectively, for patients with scores of 0, 1, 2 and 3. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for the score was 0.83 (0.72-0.94).

Conclusion: This CT scan-based model seems clinically promising for objective quantification of the risk of a leak after colorectal surgery.

Keywords: CT scan; Colorectal surgery; anastomosis; leak; score.

MeSH terms

  • Abdominal Pain / etiology
  • Adolescent
  • Adult
  • Aged
  • Aged, 80 and over
  • Anal Canal / surgery*
  • Anastomosis, Surgical / adverse effects
  • Anastomotic Leak / diagnostic imaging*
  • Anastomotic Leak / etiology
  • Area Under Curve
  • Ascitic Fluid / diagnostic imaging
  • Case-Control Studies
  • Colectomy / adverse effects
  • Colon / surgery*
  • Female
  • Fever / etiology
  • Humans
  • Ileus / etiology
  • Leukocyte Count
  • Logistic Models
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Pneumoperitoneum / diagnostic imaging
  • Pneumoperitoneum / etiology
  • ROC Curve
  • Rectum / surgery*
  • Risk Assessment / methods
  • Tomography, X-Ray Computed*
  • Young Adult