Multi-annual fluctuations in reconstructed historical time-series of a European lobster (Homarus gammarus) population disappear at increased exploitation levels

PLoS One. 2013;8(4):e58160. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0058160. Epub 2013 Apr 3.

Abstract

Through the history of ecology, fluctuations of populations have been a dominating topic, and endogenous causes of fluctuations and oscillations have been recognized and studied for more than 80 years. Here we analyzed an historical dataset, covering more than 130 years, of European lobster (Homarus gammarus) catches. The data shows periodic fluctuations, which are first dampened and then disappear over time. The disappearance of the periodicity coincided with a substantial increase in fishing effort and the oscillations have not reappeared in the time series. The shifting baseline syndrome has changed our perception of not only the status of the stock, but also the regulating pressures. We describe the transition of a naturally regulated lobster population into a heavily exploited fisheries controlled stock. This is shown by the incorporation of environmental and endogenous processes in generalized additive models, autocorrelation functions and periodicity analyses of time-series.

Publication types

  • Historical Article

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Conservation of Natural Resources
  • Fisheries / history*
  • History, 19th Century
  • History, 20th Century
  • History, 21st Century
  • Humans
  • Models, Biological
  • Models, Statistical
  • Nephropidae*
  • North Sea
  • Population Dynamics
  • Sweden

Grants and funding

The project “Waking the Deads”, of which this study has been a part, was financed by the Swedish Environment Protection Agency (Dnr 309-1685-09 Nh, http://www.naturvardsverket.se/). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript. HMAP is gratefully thanked for covering the publication fees of this issue.