Objectives To propose a method to study the effect of exposure settings on image quality and to estimate the potential for dose reduction when introducing dose-reducing measures. Methods Using the framework of visual grading regression (VGR), a log(mAs) term is included in the ordinal logistic regression equation, so that the effect of reducing the dose can be quantitatively related to the effect of adding post-processing. In the ordinal logistic regression, patient and observer identity are treated as random effects using generalised linear latent and mixed models. The potential dose reduction is then estimated from the regression coefficients. The method was applied in a single-image study of coronary CT angiography (CTA) to evaluate two-dimensional (2D) adaptive filters, and in an image-pair study of abdominal CT to evaluate 2D and three-dimensional (3D) adaptive filters. Results For five image quality criteria in coronary CTA, dose reductions of 16-26% were predicted when adding 2D filtering. Using five image quality criteria for abdominal CT, it was estimated that 2D filtering permits doses were reduced by 32-41%, and 3D filtering by 42-51%. Conclusions VGR including a log(mAs) term can be used for predictions of potential dose reduction that may be useful for guiding researchers in designing subsequent studies evaluating diagnostic value. With appropriate statistical analysis, it is possible to obtain direct numerical estimates of the dose-reducing potential of novel acquisition, reconstruction or post-processing techniques.