Climate change: believing and seeing implies adapting

PLoS One. 2012;7(11):e50182. doi: 10.1371/journal.pone.0050182. Epub 2012 Nov 21.

Abstract

Knowledge of factors that trigger human response to climate change is crucial for effective climate change policy communication. Climate change has been claimed to have low salience as a risk issue because it cannot be directly experienced. Still, personal factors such as strength of belief in local effects of climate change have been shown to correlate strongly with responses to climate change and there is a growing literature on the hypothesis that personal experience of climate change (and/or its effects) explains responses to climate change. Here we provide, using survey data from 845 private forest owners operating in a wide range of bio-climatic as well as economic-social-political structures in a latitudinal gradient across Europe, the first evidence that the personal strength of belief and perception of local effects of climate change, highly significantly explain human responses to climate change. A logistic regression model was fitted to the two variables, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.07 (SD ± 0.01) to 0.81 (SD ± 0.03) for self-reported adaptive measures taken. Adding socio-demographic variables improved the fit, estimating expected probabilities ranging from 0.022 (SD ± 0.008) to 0.91 (SD ± 0.02). We conclude that to explain and predict adaptation to climate change, the combination of personal experience and belief must be considered.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Climate
  • Climate Change*
  • Culture
  • Decision Making
  • Europe
  • Humans
  • Ownership
  • Predictive Value of Tests
  • Private Sector
  • Risk Management / economics
  • Risk Management / organization & administration*
  • Social Perception
  • Surveys and Questionnaires
  • Trees / growth & development

Grants and funding

The study was supported by the EU project MOTIVE (“Models for adaptive forest management”, grant 226544, http://motive-project.net/) and the foundation for strategic environmental research programme Mistra-SWECIA (www.mistra-swecia.se/). Persson's research was supported by the Linnaeus programme LUCID (“Lund University Centre of Excellence for Integration of Social and Natural Dimensions of Sustainability” (www.lucid.lu.se/), FORMAS, 2008-2018). The funders had no role in study design, data collection and analysis, decision to publish, or preparation of the manuscript.