Coastal zone management with stochastic multi-criteria analysis

Abstract

The methodology for coastal management proposed in this study takes into account the physical processes of the coastal system and the stochastic nature of forcing agents. Simulation techniques are used to assess the uncertainty in the performance of a set of predefined management strategies based on different criteria representing the main concerns of interest groups. This statistical information as well as the distribution function that characterizes the uncertainty regarding the preferences of the decision makers is fed into a stochastic multi-criteria acceptability analysis that provides the probability of alternatives obtaining certain ranks and also calculates the preferences of a typical decision maker who supports an alternative. This methodology was applied as a management solution for Playa Granada in the Guadalfeo River Delta (Granada, Spain), where the construction of a dam in the river basin is causing severe erosion. The analysis of shoreline evolution took into account the coupled action of atmosphere, ocean, and land agents and their intrinsic stochastic character. This study considered five different management strategies. The criteria selected for the analysis were the economic benefits for three interest groups: (i) indirect beneficiaries of tourist activities; (ii) beach homeowners; and (iii) the administration. The strategies were ranked according to their effectiveness, and the relative importance given to each criterion was obtained.