Modeling the epidemic waves of AH1N1/09 influenza around the world

Abstract

The 2009 swine flu pandemic was a global outbreak of a new strain of H1N1 influenza virus and there are more than 14,000 confirmed deaths worldwide. The aim of this paper is to propose new mathematical models to study different dynamics of H1N1 influenza virus spread in selected regions around the world. Spatial and temporal elements are included in these models to reproduce the dynamics of AH1N1/09 virus. Different models are used since H1N1 influenza virus spread in regions with different contact structures are not the same. We rely on time series notifications of individuals to estimate some of the parameters of the models. We find that, in order to reproduce the time series data and the spread of the disease, it is convenient to suggest spatio-temporal models. Regions with only one wave are modeled with the classical SEIR model and regions with multiple waves using models with spatio-temporal elements. These results help to explain and understand about potential mechanisms behind the spread of AH1N1 influenza virus in different regions around the world.