Purpose: To develop a risk score based on physical examination and chest X-ray findings to rapidly identify major trauma patients at risk of acute traumatic aortic injury (ATAI).
Methods: A multicenter retrospective study was conducted with 640 major trauma patients with associated blunt chest trauma classified into ATAI (aortic injury) and NATAI (no aortic injury) groups. The score data set included 76 consecutive ATAI and 304 NATAI patients from a single center, whereas the validation data set included 52 consecutive ATAI and 208 NATAI patients from three independent institutions. Bivariate analysis identified variables potentially influencing the presentation of aortic injury. Confirmed variables by logistic regression were assigned a score according to their corresponding beta coefficient which was rounded to the closest integer value (1-4).
Results: Predictors of aortic injury included widened mediastinum, hypotension less than 90 mmHg, long bone fracture, pulmonary contusion, left scapula fracture, hemothorax, and pelvic fracture. Area under receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.96. In the score data set, sensitivity was 93.42 %, specificity 85.85 %, Youden's index 0.79, positive likelihood ratio 6.60, and negative likelihood ratio 0.08. In the validation data set, sensitivity was 92.31 % and specificity 85.1 %.
Conclusions: Given the relative infrequency of traumatic aortic injury, which often leads to missed or delayed diagnosis, application of our score has the potential to draw necessary clinical attention to the possibility of aortic injury, thus providing the chance of a prompt specific diagnostic and therapeutic management.