The wide variety of clinical courses that lead to the development of severe aplastic anemia (AA) makes it difficult to speculate whether treatment for AA is required in the early phase. The objective of this study was to identify a method for predicting the clinical course of AA at the onset of the disease. First, in healthy adults, vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) released per platelet was measured by the activation of platelet-rich plasma (PRP) and platelet-poor plasma (PPP). Serum concentration of VEGF, serum concentration of VEGF corrected for platelet count, and serum concentration of VEGF corrected for both platelet count and hematocrit (corrected VEGF) were then compared to VEGF released per platelet. Corrected VEGF showed the best correlation with VEGF released per platelet by the activation of PRP in healthy subjects (R (2) = in a single 0.806, p = 0.001). Next, corrected VEGF was assayed in 11 pediatric patients with AA at the time of diagnosis. Corrected VEGF in AA patients was significantly greater than that in age-matched control subjects [1.32 × 10(-6) pg (range 0.36-1.85) vs. 0.18 × 10(-6) pg (range 0.12-0.94)] (p = 0.002). Moreover, corrected VEGF in AA patients who did not require treatment for more than 2 years was significantly greater than that in AA patients who required earlier treatment [1.67 × 10(-6) pg (range 1.32-1.85) vs. 0.87 × 10(-6) pg (0.36-1.34)] (p = 0.011). These data indicate that a compensatory mechanism for increasing VEGF and preventing disease progression might play a role in AA. Corrected VEGF may be useful for predicting the clinical course of AA.