Objective: To determine the best lipid variable to predict coronary heart disease (CHD) in Japanese patients with type 2 diabetes.
Research design and methods: Eligible Japanese men and women (1,771) aged 40-70 years with type 2 diabetes from 59 institutes nationwide were followed for a planned 8-year period. The performance of eight conventional lipid variables, i.e., total cholesterol (TC), LDL-cholesterol (LDLC), HDL-cholesterol (HDLC), triglycerides (TGs), non-HDLC, TC/HDLC ratio, LDLC/HDLC ratio, and TG/HDLC ratio, as predictors of incident CHD were evaluated by four methods: hazard ratio (HR) per one SD increment by multivariate Cox analysis, χ(2) likelihood ratio test, area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), and tertile analysis.
Results: Although all variables significantly predicted CHD events in men, non-HDLC (HR per one SD 1.78 [95% CI 1.43-2.21]; AUC 0.726) and TC/HDLC (HR 1.63 [1.36-1.95]; AUC 0.718) had the better predictive performances among the variables, including LDLC. In women, TGs (log-transformed; HR 1.72 [1.21-2.43]; AUC 0.708) were the best predictor according to results of tertile analysis (HR of the top tertile versus the bottom tertile 4.31 [1.53-12.16]). The associations with incident CHD were linear and continuous.
Conclusions: For Japanese diabetic men, non-HDLC and TC/HDLC were the best predictors, whereas TGs were most predictive for women. These findings, which included prominent sex differences, should be considered among clinical approaches to risk reduction among East Asians with diabetes.