Spatial dynamics of airborne infectious diseases

J Theor Biol. 2012 Mar 21:297:116-26. doi: 10.1016/j.jtbi.2011.12.015. Epub 2011 Dec 23.

Abstract

Disease outbreaks, such as those of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome in 2003 and the 2009 pandemic A(H1N1) influenza, have highlighted the potential for airborne transmission in indoor environments. Respirable pathogen-carrying droplets provide a vector for the spatial spread of infection with droplet transport determined by diffusive and convective processes. An epidemiological model describing the spatial dynamics of disease transmission is presented. The effects of an ambient airflow, as an infection control, are incorporated leading to a delay equation, with droplet density dependent on the infectious density at a previous time. It is found that small droplets (∼0.4μm) generate a negligible infectious force due to the small viral load and the associated duration they require to transmit infection. In contrast, larger droplets (∼4μm) can lead to an infectious wave propagating through a fully susceptible population or a secondary infection outbreak for a localized susceptible population. Droplet diffusion is found to be an inefficient mode of droplet transport leading to minimal spatial spread of infection. A threshold air velocity is derived, above which disease transmission is impaired even when the basic reproduction number R(0) exceeds unity.

MeSH terms

  • Aerosols
  • Air Microbiology*
  • Air Movements
  • Air Pollution, Indoor / adverse effects
  • Air Pollution, Indoor / analysis
  • Diffusion
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Exhalation
  • Humans
  • Influenza, Human / epidemiology
  • Influenza, Human / prevention & control
  • Influenza, Human / transmission*
  • Inhalation Exposure / adverse effects
  • Inhalation Exposure / analysis
  • Models, Biological*
  • Particle Size
  • Ventilation

Substances

  • Aerosols