Background/aims: To study the ability of matrix metalloproteinase-9 (MMP-9) to predict pancreatic necrosis (PN) in patients with severe acute pancreatitis (SAP).
Methodology: From July 1, 2010 to December 31, 2010 patients diagnosed with SAP were included (n=35). Serum MMP-9, CRP and IL-6 were analyzed on days 1, 3, 5 and 7 of hospitalization to determine if they could predict the development of pancreatic necrosis.
Results: Of the 35 patients included, 12 (34.3%) had evidence of PN. Admission MMP-9 concentrations were significantly higher in patients with PN compared to subjects without PN (13.1±4.0 vs. 7.5±3.8, p<0.05). Receiver operating characteristic curves for PN revealed an area under the curve of 0.832 for admission MMP-9 (95% confidence interval 0.696-0.967, p=0.001). Elevated concentrations of MMP-9 on admission for pancreatic necrosis =9.35mg/L yielded a positive predictive value of 90.9% with a sensitivity of 91.7% and a specificity of 69.6%. Binary logistic regression indicated that MMP-9 was significantly associated with pancreatic necrosis (Odds ratios 25.1, 95% confidence interval 2.7-234.2; p=0.005).
Conclusions: An elevation in serum MMP-9 within the first 24 hours of disease is strongly associated with the development of pancreatic necrosis. This finding may have important clinical implications and requires further investigation.