Background: There has been limited research on how recessions (or more generally, the strength of the economy) affect drug use and the related outcome of drug selling. This is especially important, given the current economic crisis. This paper aims to use a conceptual framework, previous research, and new research to predict how the current economic crisis may be affecting youth drug selling and drug use.
Methods: A conceptual framework to understand how a recession could affect youth drug selling and drug use is presented, along with a review of the literature on empirical investigations on how the strength of the economy affects these behaviours among teenagers. In addition, new analyses for young adults are presented.
Results: The conceptual framework postulates that a recession would have direct positive effects on the prevalence of youth drug selling but ambiguous direct effects on youth drug use. The conceptual framework also postulates that drug selling and drug use are inter-connected at the individual level and the aggregate level. Thus, any effect of a recession on one would likely affect the other in the same direction. The limited empirical evidence indicates that both drug selling and drug use among youth are higher when the economy is weaker.
Conclusions: The current economic crisis will likely increase both youth drug selling and drug use relative to what they would have otherwise been.
Published by Elsevier B.V.