We sought to determine if early recurrence of atrial fibrillation (AF) after surgical ablation is a risk factor of late failure. Between February 2004 to May 2009, 106 patients underwent surgical ablation of concomitant permanent AF with radiofrequency. Operations primarily consisted of valve surgery in 85% of patients. Hospital mortality was 2.8% (n = 3). The median follow-up was 37 months (interquartile rank 12-77), and was complete in 99% of patients. Freedom from AF was 82%, 76% and 68% at one, two and three years, respectively. Patients with early recurrence of AF had less prevalence of sinus rhythm in late follow-up (P < 0.001). Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that AF duration [hazard ratio (HR) 1.014, 95% CI 1.009-1.020, P < 0.001] and early recurrence of AF (HR 3.45, 95% CI 1.50-7.95, P = 0.004) were independent risk factors for failure. In conclusion, in our series, early recurrence of AF after surgical ablation is a strong predictor of late failure.