WKB theory of epidemic fade-out in stochastic populations

Phys Rev E Stat Nonlin Soft Matter Phys. 2009 Oct;80(4 Pt 1):041130. doi: 10.1103/PhysRevE.80.041130. Epub 2009 Oct 27.

Abstract

Stochastic effects may cause "fade-out" of an infectious disease in a population immediately after an epidemic outbreak. We evaluate the epidemic fade-out probability by a WKB method and find that the most probable path to extinction of the disease comes from an instantonlike orbit in the phase space of an underlying Hamiltonian flow.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't