Comparing early outbreak detection algorithms based on their optimized parameter values

J Biomed Inform. 2010 Feb;43(1):97-103. doi: 10.1016/j.jbi.2009.08.003. Epub 2009 Aug 13.

Abstract

Background: Many researchers have evaluated the performance of outbreak detection algorithms with recommended parameter values. However, the influence of parameter values on algorithm performance is often ignored.

Methods: Based on reported case counts of bacillary dysentery from 2005 to 2007 in Beijing, semi-synthetic datasets containing outbreak signals were simulated to evaluate the performance of five outbreak detection algorithms. Parameters' values were optimized prior to the evaluation.

Results: Differences in performances were observed as parameter values changed. Of the five algorithms, space-time permutation scan statistics had a specificity of 99.9% and a detection time of less than half a day. The exponential weighted moving average exhibited the shortest detection time of 0.1 day, while the modified C1, C2 and C3 exhibited a detection time of close to one day.

Conclusion: The performance of these algorithms has a correlation to their parameter values, which may affect the performance evaluation.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't

MeSH terms

  • Algorithms
  • Artificial Intelligence
  • China
  • Computer Simulation
  • Disease Outbreaks
  • Dysentery, Bacillary / epidemiology*
  • Dysentery, Bacillary / genetics*
  • Humans
  • Models, Statistical
  • Population Surveillance / methods
  • Public Health Informatics / methods
  • Reproducibility of Results
  • Sensitivity and Specificity
  • Software
  • Time Factors