Background: Vigorous exertion and endurance training have been reported to increase atrial fibrillation (AF). Associations of habitual light or moderate activity with AF incidence have not been evaluated.
Methods and results: We prospectively investigated associations of leisure-time activity, exercise intensity, and walking habits, assessed at baseline and updated during follow-up visits, with incident AF, diagnosed by annual 12-lead ECGs and hospital discharge records, from 1989 to 2001 among 5446 adults > or =65 years of age in the Cardiovascular Health Study. During 47 280 person-years of follow-up, 1061 new AF cases occurred (incidence 22.4/1000 person-years). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, leisure-time activity was associated with lower AF incidence in a graded manner, with 25% (hazard ratio [HR] 0.75, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.61 to 0.90), 22% (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.65 to 0.95), and 36% (HR 0.64, 95% CI 0.52 to 0.79) lower risk in quintiles 3, 4, and 5 versus quintile 1 (P for trend <0.001). Exercise intensity had a U-shaped relationship with AF (quadratic P=0.02): Versus no exercise, AF incidence was lower with moderate-intensity exercise (HR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.89) but not with high-intensity exercise (HR 0.87, 95% CI 0.64 to 1.19). Walking distance and pace were each associated with lower AF risk in a graded manner (P for trend <0.001); when we assessed the combined effects of distance and pace, individuals in quartiles 2, 3, and 4 had 25% (HR 0.75, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.99), 32% (HR 0.68, 95% CI 0.50 to 0.92), and 44% (HR 0.56, 95% CI 0.38 to 0.82) lower AF incidence than individuals in quartile 1. Findings appeared unrelated to confounding by comorbidity or indication. After evaluation of cut points of moderate leisure-time activity (approximately 600 kcal/week), walking distance (12 blocks per week), and pace (2 mph), 26% of all new AF cases (95% CI 7% to 43%) appeared attributable to absence of these activities.
Conclusions: Light to moderate physical activities, particularly leisure-time activity and walking, are associated with significantly lower AF incidence in older adults.