This paper describes a modelling approach used to investigate the significance of key factors (vehicle type, compaction type, site design, temporal effects) in influencing the variability in observed nett amenity bin weights produced by household waste recycling centres (HWRCs). This new method can help to quickly identify sites that are producing significantly lighter bins, enabling detailed back-end analyses to be efficiently targeted and best practice in HWRC operation identified. Tested on weigh ticket data from nine HWRCs across West Sussex, UK, the model suggests that compaction technique, vehicle type, month and site design explained 76% of the variability in the observed nett amenity weights. For each factor, a weighting coefficient was calculated to generate a predicted nett weight for each bin transaction and three sites were subsequently identified as having similar characteristics but returned significantly different mean nett bin weights. Waste and site audits were then conducted at the three sites to try and determine the possible sources of the remaining variability. Significant differences were identified in the proportions of contained waste (bagged), wood, and dry recyclables entering the amenity waste stream, particularly at one site where significantly less contaminated waste and dry recyclables were observed.