Acute graft-versus-host disease (GVHD) remains a significant cause of mortality after hematopoietic cell transplantation (HCT). Tumor necrosis factor-alpha (TNF-alpha) mediates GVHD by amplifying donor immune responses to host tissues and by direct toxicity to target organs. We measured TNF receptor 1 (TNFR1) as a surrogate marker for TNF-alpha in 438 recipients of myeloablative HCT before transplantation and at day 7 after transplantation. Increases in TNFR1 levels more than or equal to 2.5 baseline correlated with eventual development of GVHD grade 2 to 4 (58% vs 32%, P < .001) and with treatment-related mortality (39% vs 17%, P < .001). In a multivariate analysis including age, degree of HLA match, donor type, recipient and donor sex, disease, and status at HCT, the increase in TNFR1 level at day 7 remained a significant predictor for outcome. Measurement of TNFR1 levels early after transplantation provides independent information in advance of important clinical outcomes, such as GVHD and death.