Spatial and temporal dynamics of dengue fever in Peru: 1994-2006

Epidemiol Infect. 2008 Dec;136(12):1667-77. doi: 10.1017/S0950268808000290. Epub 2008 Apr 8.

Abstract

SUMMARYThe weekly number of dengue cases in Peru, South America, stratified by province for the period 1994-2006 were analysed in conjunction with associated demographic, geographic and climatological data. Estimates of the reproduction number, moderately correlated with population size (Spearman rho=0.28, P=0.03), had a median of 1.76 (IQR 0.83-4.46). The distributions of dengue attack rates and epidemic durations follow power-law (Pareto) distributions (coefficient of determination >85%, P<0.004). Spatial heterogeneity of attack rates was highest in coastal areas followed by mountain and jungle areas. Our findings suggest a hierarchy of transmission events during the large 2000-2001 epidemic from large to small population areas when serotypes DEN-3 and DEN-4 were first identified (Spearman rho=-0.43, P=0.03). The need for spatial and temporal dengue epidemic data with a high degree of resolution not only increases our understanding of the dynamics of dengue but will also generate new hypotheses and provide a platform for testing innovative control policies.

MeSH terms

  • Climate
  • Dengue / epidemiology*
  • Dengue / transmission
  • Dengue Virus / physiology*
  • Disease Outbreaks*
  • Geography
  • Incidence
  • Peru / epidemiology
  • Population Density
  • Regression Analysis
  • Time Factors