Objectives: To gain insight in realistic policy targets for overweight at a population level and the accompanying costs. Therefore, the effect on overweight prevalence was estimated of large scale implementation of a community intervention (applied to 90% of general population) and an intensive lifestyle program (applied to 10% of overweight adults), and costs and cost-effectiveness were assessed.
Methods: Costs and effects were based on two Dutch projects and verified by similar international projects. A markov-type simulation model estimated long-term health benefits, health care costs and cost-effectiveness.
Results: Combined implementation of the interventions--at the above mentioned scale--reduces prevalence rates of overweight by approximately 3 percentage points and of physical inactivity by 2 percentage points after 5 years, at a cost of 7 euros per adult capita per year. The cost-effectiveness ratio of combined implementation amounts to euro 6000 per life-year gained and euro 5700 per QALY gained (including costs of unrelated diseases in life years gained). Sensitivity analyses showed that these ratios are quite robust.
Conclusions: A realistic policy target is a decrease in overweight prevalence of three percentage points, compared to a situation with no interventions. In reality, large scale implementation of the interventions may not counteract the expected upward trends in The Netherlands completely. Nonetheless, implementation of the interventions is cost-effective.