Release of hydrogen sulfide by asteroid impacts in Black Sea and risks for inland human population

Abstract

The hydrogen sulfide rich waters of the Black Sea pose a potential danger for the surrounding land regions. The impact of an asteroid may cause a catastrophic poisonous gas release in the atmosphere. Some effects of this last phenomenon on the Eastern Black Sea coastal regions are evaluated in this article. Two simple models are proposed to describe the generation of the H(2)S cloud. The initial diameter of the cloud depends on asteroid size. The initial thickness of the cloud depends, in addition, on sea depth at impact location. The wind speed plays an important role in H(2)S cloud dynamics. At 10 m/s wind-speed the cloud margins may be seen at about 150 km from impact location in about 3.2 h. The maximum distance traveled by the hydrogen sulfide cloud increases by increasing the asteroid size and wind speed. The influence of the impact position on the distance traveled by hydrogen sulfide clouds is rather weak, as far as the seawater depth does not change significantly. Two values are considered when referring to the effect of hydrogen sulfide concentrations on humans: the lower concentration limit of 19.88 ppm (which corresponds to fatigue, loss of appetite, headache, irritability, poor memory, dizziness) and the upper concentration limit of 497 ppm (which corresponds to death after single exposures). The land surface area covered by the H(2)S cloud generated by a 1000 m size asteroid during the run-in ranges between about 6080 and 11,520 km(2). This may affect between 145,000 and 276,000 people. When a 250 m size asteroid is considered, the covered land surface area ranges between about 840 and 1,890 km(2) and between 20,000 and 45,000 people may be affected. In case of a 70 m size asteroid, the cloud covers up to 105 km(2) of land during the run-in. This may affect about 2500 people. These are moderate estimates. They do not include the urban population and may be 10 times underestimated for some particular wind directions. General recommendations to diminish the social effects of the impacts are presented.