Ecologists have long debated the relative importance of biotic interactions vs. abiotic forces on the population dynamics of both marine and terrestrial organisms. Investigation of stock size in Dungeness crab (Cancer magister) is a classic example of this debate. We first tested the hypothesis that adult population size was set by larval success. We found that during a five-year sampling period, adult crab population size from Oregon through central California, USA, as measured by the commercial catch, varied directly with the number of terminal-stage larvae (megalopae) returning to Coos Bay, Oregon, four years earlier; adult population size was largely determined (> 90% of the variation) by success during the larval stage. We then tested whether biotic interactions or abiotic forces caused the variation in larval success. Most of the variation (> 90%) in the number of returning megalopae is explained by the timing of the spring transition, a seasonal shift in atmospheric forcing that drives ocean currents along the west coast of the United States. Early spring transitions lead to larger numbers of returning Dungeness megalopae, while in four other crab taxa, species with very different life history characteristics, early-spring transitions lead to lower numbers of returning megalopae. During the past roughly 30 years, the size of the commercial catch of Dungeness crab is significantly and negatively correlated with the date of the spring transition throughout the California Current system. Long-term variation in the date of the spring transition may explain a major crash in the Dungeness crab fishery in central California, which began in the late 1950s. The data suggest that Dungeness crab population size is determined by variation in larval success and that a significant portion of this variation is due to the timing of the spring transition, a large-scale climatic forcer.