Background and aim: We conducted a community-based study to assess the incidence of newly-developed gastroesophageal reflux disease (GERD). We also analyzed the risk factors of GERD occurrence.
Methods: A total of 322 patients without acid suppression therapy (135 men, mean age: 59.8 years), who lived in the Japanese community, took a QUEST questionnaire (a self-administered questionnaire for the screening of GERD) in 1998. Blood samples were taken for the measurement of an anti-Helicobacter pylori antibody and pepsinogen (PG) I/II to assess the grade of gastric atrophy. Of these patients, 289 scored less than six points and were diagnosed as non-GERD. Two-hundred-and-forty-one patients (95 men, mean age: 67.0 years) took the QUEST questionnaire again in 2004 (after 6 years). The incidence of newly-developed GERD was analyzed. These patients were categorized into three groups based on their initial PG I/II (group A: less than three, group B: three to six, and group C: more than six). The risk factors of GERD occurrence were evaluated.
Results: Of the 241 non-GERD patients, 37 patients (15.4%) developed GERD after 6 years. The incidence of newly-developed GERD in group C was significantly higher than both groups A and B (group A: 3.8% [three of 79], group B: 11.8% (11/93), group C: 33.3% (26/69), P < 0.01, respectively). The prevalence of H. pylori negativity, constipation, and medication of Ca antagonists in newly-developed GERD were significantly higher than in those who did not develop GERD. [Correction added after online publication on 1 July 2007: the preceding sentence has replaced one that read 'The prevalence of H. pylori negativity, constipation, and medication of Ca antagonists in newly-developed GERD were significantly higher than in those who did develop GERD.']
Conclusion: The incidence of newly-developed GERD in the Japanese community was 16.5% for 6 years. The incidence of newly-developed GERD patients who scored a PG I/II over six was significantly higher than those who scored lower. H. pylori negativity, constipation, and medication of Ca antagonists might be risk factors of GERD occurrence.