Fermentation prior to freezing significantly reduces the shelf life of frozen dough, measured as a decline in proofing power. Changes during fermentation caused by yeast metabolism have previously been described empirically on a dough weight basis and have not been mathematically modeled. In this work, yeast metabolites were quantified in fermenting dough and their concentrations were estimated in the aqueous environment around yeast cells. The osmotic pressure in the aqueous phase increases by 23% during 3 h of fermentation, which depresses the freezing point by 1 degrees C. The rise in osmotic pressure and the accumulation of ethanol may affect phase equilibria in the dough, baking properties, and the shelf life of frozen dough. Predictive modeling equations fitted sugar concentration data accurately. It was found that the preference of baker's yeast for glucose over fructose was stronger in fermenting dough than in liquid fermentations. The usefulness of the model in industrial bakery formulation work was demonstrated.