Purpose: The aim of this study is to present the projected increase in definite primary open angle glaucoma (POAG) and related diseases in Austria from 2001 to 2031.
Methods: The present work is based on two data sources: population projections in Austria and detection rates of the Salzburg-Moorfields Collaborative Glaucoma Study for Austrians in the age groups 40-54 years, 55-69 years, and 70 years and above. The estimates of this glaucoma screening program are based on a total of 3419 subjects. Sensitivity analyses were applied to test the effects of higher and lower sets of prevalence assumptions on the extent of the probable projections.
Results: The number of Austrians with definite POAG, early POAG, POAG suspects, and ocular hypertension (OHT) is expected to increase until 2031 by 0.5%, 43.1%, and 65.6% in the three age groups specified above, respectively. The overall number of Austrians with POAG at the age of 40 or older is estimated to increase from 67,600 in 2001 to 96,400 in 2031. This corresponds to an increase of 42% from 2001 to 2031 (lower scenario: 37%, upper scenario: 47%). Similar increases are expected for individuals with early POAG, POAG suspects, and OHT.
Conclusions: These projections provide an objective basis to estimate the resources that may be needed by health authorities and care providers such as ophthalmologists in the future and should help to design glaucoma blindness prevention programs or screening studies in Austria. The predicted continuous increase of Europe's older population will prove to become a challenge for public health professionals not only for diagnosis and monitoring, but also for the treatment of glaucoma.