Purpose: To facilitate future glaucoma model development and to provide guidance for decision-makers evaluating them, we provide an overview of an innovative glaucoma model and highlight important modeling considerations.
Considerations: The considerations that were addressed include: disease outcome that is both relevant and meaningful to current clinical practice; diversity in treatment options and practices; incorporation of therapy discontinuation; and consideration of the variability in patient response to treatment.
Model scope: A state-transition, Monte Carlo simulation model was developed to simulate the management and treatment of patients with glaucoma and/or ocular hypertension. The model examines strategies involving sequential use of up to 6 pharmacologic interventions. Transitions are based on the monthly probability that a patient is no longer "successfully maintained" on therapy, which can be a consequence of lack of intraocular pressure control, adverse events, lack of compliance, or lack of persistence. Outputs of the model include months on each treatment, frequency of therapy switches, days of intraocular pressure control, frequency of ophthalmologist visits, frequency of surgery, and glaucoma-related costs. The model allows the user to specify country-specific treatment strategies, survival on therapy, surgical rates, practice patterns, and costs.
Concept application: The model presented offers insights into accommodating patient and clinician variability through the use of persistence distributions. It will facilitate future glaucoma model development and provide insight for decision-makers who must evaluate model-based analyses of the economic value of glaucoma interventions.