Incremental prognostic value of stress echocardiography over clinical and stress electrocardiographic variables in patients with prior myocardial infarction: "warranty time" of a normal stress echocardiogram

Echocardiography. 2006 Jul;23(6):455-64. doi: 10.1111/j.1540-8175.2006.00261.x.

Abstract

Background: Patients with prior myocardial infarction (MI) are at increased risk of subsequent cardiac events (MI or cardiac death). The incremental prognostic value and warranty time of a normal stress echocardiogram in this high-risk population is not well defined.

Methods: We evaluated 251 consecutive patients (62 +/- 11 years; 64% males) with remote history of MI (>6 weeks) undergoing stress echocardiography (83% dobutamine). Ischemia was defined as a new reversible wall motion abnormality and/or biphasic response. Follow-up for up to 4 years (mean 2.9 +/- 1.0 years) for confirmed MI (n = 7) and cardiac death (n = 15) were obtained.

Results: Stress echocardiography effectively risk stratified patients into normal versus abnormal subgroups (Event rate 0.8% per year vs 4.2% per year; P = 0.01; RR = 5.6, 95% CI = 1.3-24.7). In patients with a normal stress echocardiogram, the event rate at the end of 6, 12, and 18 months were <1% per year. After 18 months the event rate in patients with a normal stress echocardiogram increased greatly (>1% per year). Stress echocardiography yields incremental prognostic value over clinical and stress electrocardiographic variables (Global chi-square increased from 12.4 to 25 to 31.1, P < 0.0001 both groups).

Conclusions: Stress echocardiography yields appropriate risk stratification and prognosis and provides incremental prognostic value over clinical and stress electrocardiographic variables even in patients with prior MI. A normal stress echocardiogram portends a benign prognosis (<1% event rate/year) for up to 18 months.

MeSH terms

  • Cardiotonic Agents / administration & dosage
  • Chi-Square Distribution
  • Costs and Cost Analysis
  • Dobutamine / administration & dosage
  • Echocardiography, Stress* / economics
  • Exercise Test
  • Female
  • Humans
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Myocardial Infarction / diagnostic imaging*
  • Myocardial Infarction / physiopathology*
  • Prognosis
  • Proportional Hazards Models
  • Risk Factors

Substances

  • Cardiotonic Agents
  • Dobutamine