A simulation study to assess the sensitivity of a forest health monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects

Environ Monit Assess. 2006 Nov;122(1-3):289-307. doi: 10.1007/s10661-005-9181-6. Epub 2006 Jun 13.

Abstract

The sensitivity of the United States Forest Health Monitoring network to outbreaks of defoliating insects was examined by means of a simulation study. A model constructed specifically for the study was used to generate a wide variety of defoliation patterns in forested landscapes. Forest configuration was that of Minnesota, USA, as expressed by the GAP land cover classification. Combinations of model parameters were based on a Latin Hypercube sample. The relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak characteristics was then examined via multiple regression. Both theoretical and model results pointed to a strong, linear relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and outbreak size. Model results provided additional insight, suggesting a significant relationship between the average number of plots defoliated and other outbreak characteristics after outbreak size was taken into account.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Computer Simulation*
  • Environmental Monitoring*
  • Forestry*
  • Insecta*
  • Models, Biological*
  • Research Design